As Week 13 of the Fantasy Football season approaches, recent trends indicate several players are likely to see increased targets. Analyzing performance data, particularly from Week 12, reveals pivotal insights that could influence fantasy lineups.
A key data-driven approach introduced last season employs an XGBOOST model alongside PFF’s extensive collection of route-level data. This methodology aims to predict targets based on players’ routes and situational factors. The metrics generated—Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards—have proven to be more stable than traditional metrics, providing a clearer picture of potential player performance.
In Week 12, several players stood out with remarkable target shares. For instance, Parker Washington received 7 targets, translating to a 23.33% target share, while Khalil Shakir led with 10 targets and a 32.26% target share. Conversely, Isaiah Williams was surprisingly absent from the target chart with no receptions, despite a significant drop in route participation. Overall, these trends highlight the reliability of the predictive model, as all players mentioned exceeded their season averages in target share.
Identifying Potential Breakouts for Week 13
The upcoming week presents opportunities for players who were frequently open in their routes but did not receive the expected targets in Week 12. This trend suggests an increase in targets per route run and target share for these players. A notable example is D.K. Metcalf, who had a favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears. Despite his consistent separation from defenders, he did not earn the targets one might expect, indicating that he could be primed for a breakout performance in Week 13.
Another critical aspect of player performance analysis involves understanding how defenses impact offensive efficiency. Recent discussions have highlighted the effectiveness of certain defensive schemes in limiting potential expected points added (EPA) for offenses. Notably, the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams have excelled in this area, demonstrating a capacity to restrict both potential EPA per attempt and capture rates for opposing offenses.
This season has seen a significant shift in defensive strategies, particularly with the adoption of more zone-heavy, two-high shell approaches. Data since 2019 indicates that the average potential EPA faced by defenses in 2023 is the lowest recorded. This transformation emphasizes the effectiveness of these strategies in curbing offensive opportunities.
Highlighting Key Plays and Missed Opportunities
In reviewing Week 12 performances, a standout moment involved Jameis Winston and Wan’Dale Robinson of the New York Giants. During a critical third-and-17 situation, Robinson executed a post route, achieving notable separation. His successful route earned him a +1.5 play-level PFF grade. Unfortunately for Robinson, Winston faced heavy pressure from defender Al-Quadin Muhammad, leading to no target.
Instead, Winston managed to evade the pressure and connected with another open receiver, Theo Johnson, for a significant gain of 39 yards. This play was crucial, keeping the Giants in a position to score in the closing minutes of the game. Had they capitalized on Robinson’s open route, it might have shifted the game’s momentum entirely.
As the week unfolds, fantasy players should consider these insights and data trends carefully. The potential for increased targets among certain players could be the deciding factor in matchups, making Week 13 one to watch closely.
