URGENT UPDATE: Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi have signaled a drastic decline in the likelihood of new stimulus checks for Americans, dropping to just a 5% chance as of today. This marks a sharp decrease from 13.4% earlier this month, reflecting growing skepticism about any federal direct payouts before the year’s end, according to FOX Business.
The dwindling market for these so-called “tariff rebate” payments indicates that traders are losing faith in the government’s ability to deliver financial support tied to tariff revenue. Trading volume has been modest yet notable, exceeding $451,000 as traders react to the shifting political landscape. Kalshi allows users to wager real money on significant political and economic outcomes, effectively turning public sentiment into tradable odds.
President Donald Trump had previously proposed funding $2,000 payments to Americans using tariff revenue, a plan that aimed to mitigate the growing national debt of $38 trillion. However, the latest data reveals that traders are increasingly doubtful. On Kalshi, the likelihood of the U.S. Supreme Court siding with Trump on tariff issues has plummeted to 22%, a staggering 23-point drop following oral arguments that exposed skepticism among justices.
The legal scrutiny surrounding Trump’s trade policies intensified on November 5, when the Supreme Court heard arguments regarding the legality of his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs. Trump has described this case as “life or death for our country,” underscoring the potential consequences of the Court’s ruling on his tariff strategy and any associated payments.
As traders on Kalshi and rival platform Polymarket reflect this sentiment, odds on Polymarket mirror Kalshi’s pessimism, with probabilities hovering around 23%, down 15 points in the same timeframe. The Supreme Court has yet to issue its ruling, leaving both Trump’s tariff strategy and the future of any payments in a precarious state.
This situation has immediate implications for millions of Americans who may rely on financial assistance as inflation and economic pressures continue to mount. With the clock ticking toward the end of the year, the uncertainty surrounding stimulus checks and tariff payments is likely to intensify discussions among lawmakers and the public alike.
For now, as the odds of receiving any new financial aid dwindle, observers will be closely monitoring the Supreme Court’s forthcoming decision and any new developments that could alter the current trajectory. Stay tuned for updates as this situation unfolds.
