Allies of former President Donald Trump have initiated two federal lawsuits that could significantly influence the composition of the 2030 census and the allocation of political power and federal resources. The cases, currently navigating the legal system, could reshape how populations are counted, particularly in states like Texas, which relies heavily on federal funding.
One lawsuit, spearheaded by America First Legal in Florida, questions the Census Bureau’s use of statistical methods introduced in the 2020 census. The plaintiffs argue that the bureau’s implementation of “differential privacy” and group-quarters imputation distorted local population counts, adversely affecting representation for citizens. They are seeking to prevent these methods from being used in future counts.
In parallel, a separate lawsuit filed in Louisiana by four Republican state attorneys general, alongside the Federation for American Immigration Reform, aims to exclude undocumented immigrants from the population totals that inform congressional districting. This legal action echoes prior Republican initiatives to limit apportionment strictly to citizens and legal residents, raising critical questions about demographic representation in the coming decade.
Controversial Methods Under Scrutiny
The Florida lawsuit targets two specific statistical methodologies implemented during the last census. The first, differential privacy, adds statistical “noise” to protect respondent confidentiality, while the second, group-quarters imputation, estimates residents in communal living situations, such as dormitories and nursing homes, when direct counts fail. Critics of these methods assert they have skewed local population figures, jeopardizing the balance between urban and rural representation. Proponents argue that these techniques were necessary to maintain privacy and ensure data integrity, especially given the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Should the courts decide to eliminate these methodologies or rule against counting noncitizens in apportionment totals, the political landscape could experience a notable shift. The Associated Press indicates that census data informs the distribution of approximately $2.8 trillion in federal funding annually, which is crucial for state and local governments.
Data from the Pew Research Center highlights that a significant portion of undocumented immigrants resides in states such as California, Texas, Florida, and New York. Thus, any alteration in how populations are counted could disproportionately affect these states, particularly Texas, where federal resources are vital for community services.
Census Bureau’s Preparation for 2030
In anticipation of the upcoming census, the Census Bureau is proactively conducting a Census Test in 2026 across six locations, including a site in western Texas. This initiative aims to trial new online response tools and refine methods for counting individuals in group quarters. Census officials affirm these preparatory measures are designed to enhance data collection processes well ahead of the 2030 census.
The ongoing litigation is already producing significant legal activity. America First Legal has filed motions for summary judgment and expanded its complaint to include additional plaintiffs. Meanwhile, Democratic-aligned intervenors, represented by Elias Law Group, are seeking to join the case to vigorously defend the Census Bureau’s position.
Lawyers from the Justice Department have suggested that certain parts of the litigation should be paused or dismissed while new leadership reviews the department’s stance. In the Louisiana case, court documents indicate that lifting a stay is “not appropriate” at this time, implying the federal government prefers to delay major legal changes while it finalizes its census preparations.
The core of these legal disputes centers on the interpretation of the Constitution and federal law. Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment mandates that the federal government counts “the whole number of persons in each State.” In contrast, 13 U.S.C. section 195 restricts the use of statistical sampling for determining apportionment totals. Courts will need to clarify how these provisions interact when determining appropriate remedies.
The outcomes of these lawsuits could have far-reaching implications for the political landscape and federal funding distribution in Texas and beyond. As the legal battles unfold, the decisions made could reshape the dynamics of representation and resource allocation in the years leading up to the 2030 census.
