A former commander of Russia’s ground forces, Col. Gen. Vladimir Chirkin, has delivered a rare and candid critique of the Kremlin’s intelligence services regarding the invasion of Ukraine. In an interview on November 27, 2023, with the Russian radio outlet RBC, Chirkin stated that Moscow was “once again unprepared” for war, attributing this lack of readiness to misleading information from Russian intelligence about Ukraine’s political landscape.
Chirkin, who led Russia’s ground forces from 2012 to 2013, expressed his disappointment with the intelligence community, saying, “I would give our entire Russian intelligence community a failing grade.” His remarks stand out as particularly bold for a high-ranking military official, even among those who have retired from service. He recalled the early days of the conflict, when many claimed that the war would be resolved within days, stating, “Everyone started saying in February 2022 that the war would be over in three days. But unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way.”
The general elaborated that Russian leadership had been misled into believing that approximately 70% of the Ukrainian population supported a pro-Russian government, only to find that the reality was quite the opposite. “It turned out to be exactly the opposite. 30% for us and 70% against,” he remarked. This miscalculation, according to Chirkin, resulted in a “seriously cruel lesson” for Russian forces in the initial weeks of the invasion.
Chirkin attributed part of the operational challenges faced by Russian troops to what he termed the “Tbilisi syndrome,” a phenomenon where military personnel are hesitant to make tactical decisions without direct orders from superiors. This hesitance likely compounded the difficulties experienced during the early stages of the conflict, including logistical failures and a lack of air superiority, leading to a withdrawal from the Kyiv region by late March 2022.
His assessments align closely with analyses from Western and Ukrainian sources, which have criticized Russia’s strategic planning and execution throughout the early months of the war. Chirkin’s frankness even caught the attention of his interviewer, Yuri Tamantsev, who remarked, “To be honest, I didn’t expect such frankness at the very beginning of our conversation.”
Despite his critical remarks, Chirkin did not challenge the Kremlin’s stated reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. The conversation shifted to a broader discussion on the evolution of Russian warfare in recent years and possible strategies to achieve Moscow’s objectives.
Chirkin’s military career has been marked by controversy, including his removal from command in 2013 due to bribery charges. He was convicted in August 2015 for accepting a bribe of 450,000 rubles and sentenced to a five-year labor camp, though his sentence was later commuted. He maintains that the corruption was a result of fraudulent actions by his subordinates and has since had his military rank reinstated.
In Russia, sharing “false information” about the war in Ukraine carries severe legal consequences, including potential imprisonment for up to 15 years. Human rights organizations assert that this law has been utilized to suppress dissent and criticism of the invasion. Chirkin’s candid critique stands out as an exception in a climate of increasing censorship and control over public discourse.
