Stablecoins, once hailed as the future of cryptocurrency, have seen their adoption grossly overstated, according to a recent report from McKinsey Financial Services. The report indicates that only about 1% of the stablecoin activity, which amounted to roughly $35 trillion in total transaction volume, is tied to actual real-world payments. This revelation calls into question the optimistic narratives surrounding the growth of stablecoins since the introduction of the GENIUS Act in 2025, which aimed to provide regulatory clarity for these digital assets.
The hype around stablecoins peaked when tech giants like Stripe and Sony entered the market with related products. Additionally, President Donald Trump reportedly reaped significant profits from stablecoin investments, despite ongoing corruption allegations surrounding the USD1 stablecoin with which he is affiliated. In a notable comparison, Wall Street veteran Tom Lee referred to stablecoins as the “ChatGPT moment” of the cryptocurrency world, echoing earlier assessments by Citi that touted 2025 as a record year for stablecoin adoption.
Misleading Metrics and Real-World Usage
Despite the assertions of increased adoption, the McKinsey report highlights that much of the blockchain activity often cited to illustrate growth—including transfers related to crypto exchanges, smart contracts, and decentralized exchanges—should not be classified as genuine payment metrics. The report estimates that stablecoin payments for 2025 will total around $390 billion, which constitutes merely 0.02% of global payment activity.
Most stablecoin transactions occur within business-to-business (B2B) contexts and international remittances, with approximately 60% of this activity originating in Asia. The report specifically notes that payments are primarily driven from financial hubs like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan.
While the inflated adoption metrics are not new to the crypto landscape, they have led to widespread misconceptions. Data points, such as increased on-chain metrics related to decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, have often been used to paint an exaggerated picture of the sector’s growth.
Growth Amid Challenges
Despite the misrepresentations, the report does acknowledge that there are signs of tangible growth in the stablecoin market. The forecasted $390 billion in payments for 2025 reflects more than double the volume recorded the previous year. Moreover, the total supply of stablecoins has surged from less than $30 billion in 2020 to over $300 billion today.
However, this growth is not without its drawbacks. Data from Chainalysis indicates that stablecoins now constitute the majority of illicit cryptocurrency transfers. Notably, the use of Tether’s USDT stablecoin has been linked to the Maduro regime in Venezuela, while adoption by the Central Bank of Iran raises questions about the implications of pro-stablecoin policies in the United States.
The evolving landscape of stablecoins has also created a divide between cypherpunks, who prioritize ideological principles, and fintech startups focused on metrics and adoption. Originally envisioned as tools for enhancing cryptocurrency adoption, stablecoins now face criticism as issuers develop their own blockchain infrastructures, which introduces another layer of centralization to the technology.
While figures like Tom Lee view the issuance of stablecoins and tokenized assets as potentially beneficial for decentralized networks like Ethereum, uncertainties linger regarding the value these open protocols may derive from such developments.
In summary, the McKinsey report serves as a crucial reminder that while the stablecoin market is growing, the narrative surrounding its adoption has been significantly inflated. Stakeholders should approach the data with caution as the industry continues to evolve.
