President Donald Trump recently announced a potential change in U.S. nuclear policy, stating he has instructed the Department of War to begin testing nuclear weapons. This declaration, made via a post on Truth Social just before a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, has sparked significant debate among experts regarding its implications and intentions.
Trump’s announcement follows a period of heightened military activity globally, particularly in relation to nuclear capabilities. He stated, “Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.” The last confirmed nuclear test was conducted by North Korea in 2017, with other countries like India and Pakistan performing tests in 1998. The United States last conducted a nuclear test in 1992.
The U.S. signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996, which has not been ratified by the Senate, yet it retains the capability to resume testing within 24 to 36 months following a presidential directive. Trump’s comments may have been influenced by recent developments, including Russia’s testing of the Burevestnik missile, a nuclear-powered weapon capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. This raises questions about whether Trump intends to test actual nuclear weapons or merely the systems that deliver them.
When pressed for clarification, both Trump and Vice President JD Vance remained vague. Trump indicated that announcements regarding testing would be forthcoming, while Vance emphasized the importance of maintaining the functionality of the weapons without elaborating on the specifics of the tests.
According to John Erath, senior policy director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, the U.S. already conducts regular tests on its Nuclear Triad—comprising bombers, submarines, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. These tests ensure the systems are operational without necessarily involving nuclear explosions. Erath pointed out that actual nuclear testing would be overseen by the Department of Energy, contradicting Trump’s assertion about the Department of War’s involvement.
The implications of increased testing, even if limited, could escalate tensions with nations such as Russia and China. Erath noted that any additional tests might be viewed as provocative, leading to further military posturing from these nations.
In a broader context, Trump’s assertion that the U.S. possesses the most nuclear weapons globally is inaccurate. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia has approximately 5,500 nuclear weapons, while the U.S. has around 5,200, and China is rapidly increasing its stockpile, currently estimated at about 600 warheads.
Concerns about the ramifications of Trump’s comments were echoed by Jeanne Shaheen, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. She described the call for renewed nuclear testing as “very dangerous and reckless,” highlighting the historical toll nuclear testing has taken on both people and the environment.
Defense expert Lyle Goldstein remarked on the ongoing nuclear rivalry, suggesting that Trump’s announcement is a reflection of a new Cold War. He emphasized the lack of any nuclear expert supporting the notion that testing would be beneficial for the U.S., noting that it could inadvertently enhance the nuclear capabilities of adversaries.
Despite Trump’s desire for denuclearization and de-escalation discussions with Russia, there has been no indication from either Moscow or Beijing that they share this goal. Goldstein pointed out that both nations appear ready to resume nuclear testing if necessary.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the potential for a renewed arms race looms large, raising critical questions about the future of nuclear policy and global security.
