Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ: RKLB) is positioning itself as a significant contender in the space launch market as it heads into a pivotal year in 2026. Following a record-setting third quarter and a substantial contract win from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA), analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald have reaffirmed their optimistic outlook for the company, dubbing it the premier alternative to SpaceX.
Record-Breaking Performance in 2025
Entering 2026, Rocket Lab is riding the momentum of its most successful year to date. In 2025, the company achieved its ambitious goal of 21 successful Electron launches, bringing its total mission count to 79. This achievement has secured Rocket Lab’s position as the second most active launcher in the United States and the leading publicly traded space company globally.
Financially, Rocket Lab is also experiencing strong performance. The company reported approximately $155 million in revenue for the third quarter, marking its highest quarterly revenue in history. Additionally, Rocket Lab’s contracted backlog surged to $1.1 billion, with management anticipating that about 57% of this backlog will be recognized as revenue within the next 12 months.
Significant Contract Win and Future Prospects
A key driver of Rocket Lab’s recent success was the award of the SDA Tranche 3 contract, valued at $805 million. This firm fixed-price agreement is the largest in the company’s history and effectively doubles its total backlog. Under this contract, Rocket Lab is tasked with designing and manufacturing 18 missile warning, tracking, and defense space vehicles for low Earth orbit. This follows the SDA Tranche 2 award of $515 million, which has already moved into full-scale production.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald view these substantial government contracts as evidence of Rocket Lab’s transformation from a small-satellite launcher into a prominent prime contractor in the aerospace sector.
Looking ahead, attention is focused on the upcoming launch of Rocket Lab’s medium-lift reusable vehicle, Neutron. The first flight of Neutron is targeted for the first half of 2026, with management aiming to have the rocket ready for launch by the first quarter of the year. Cantor Fitzgerald has highlighted this debut as a crucial catalyst for the company’s stock performance, potentially enhancing Rocket Lab’s unit economics and positioning it as a viable commercial competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
Despite some downside risks, including potential delays with Neutron, regulatory challenges, or supply chain disruptions, Cantor Fitzgerald has expressed strong confidence in Rocket Lab’s “launch heritage” and its evolution into a space infrastructure leader.
As of the latest trading data, Rocket Lab shares experienced a slight decrease, trading at $86.37 on Wednesday. The company continues to attract attention as it solidifies its role in the competitive space industry.
