Ethereum’s potential to reclaim the $3,900 mark remains a topic of considerable interest among investors. Historical trends indicate that the cryptocurrency often recovers between 60% and 70% of its prior peaks. Factors contributing to this optimism include a reduced supply of Ethereum (ETH) and over 27% of the total circulating supply currently staked, which collectively lower sell pressure and support price increases.
Historically, Bitcoin halving cycles have had a positive impact on the broader cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum frequently outperforming Bitcoin during these expansion phases. Previously, Ethereum traded near the $3,900 level during bull cycles, a significant psychological price point. Currently, Ethereum’s trading range hovers around $2,900 to $3,100, remaining below earlier highs but still above long-term averages. Market data suggests that Ethereum typically revisits critical resistance levels following extended consolidation periods.
Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis
To return to $3,900, Ethereum would need only a 25% to 35% increase from current levels, a movement commonly observed during crypto market expansion. The last peak reached over $4,800, making $3,900 approximately 19% lower. Historical patterns show that Ethereum often retraces 60% to 70% of its previous peaks before attempting to establish new highs. Using the $4,800 high as a reference, a 65% retracement would project around $3,360. A robust recovery could push prices higher, potentially targeting the $3,700 to $4,000 range.
Weekly technical charts indicate that Ethereum currently trades near the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, which range between $3,000 and $3,100. Trading volume remains stable, with recent weekly volume nearing 1 trillion units. This signals sustained market participation. The Bollinger Bands on longer timeframes reveal a middle band around $3,050, and prices typically gravitate towards the upper band after prolonged compression. The upper band currently rests near $4,500, and historically, Ethereum has touched this upper band approximately once every 18 to 24 months during expansion phases. This statistical behavior suggests that $3,900 is technically within reach.
Supply and Demand Factors
Following the Ethereum merge, supply growth has significantly slowed, with annual issuance now close to 0% during periods of high network activity. Daily burn rates can reach between 1,200 and 1,500 ETH during periods of heightened usage. At the current price levels near $3,000, daily burn values translate to approximately $3.6 million to $4.5 million. The total amount of staked Ethereum has surpassed 33 million ETH, representing more than 27% of the total circulating supply. This locked supply effectively reduces selling pressure, and historical data indicates that Ethereum often sees sharp price increases once staking surpasses the 20% threshold.
Daily active addresses currently range between 400,000 and 500,000, though peak cycles have previously pushed this figure above 700,000. Historically, a return to those higher activity levels has coincided with price movements of 40% to 80% over 12 to 18 months.
Future Price Scenarios: 2026 to 2030
Looking ahead to 2026, the year is expected to catalyze a post-halving expansion phase in the broader crypto market. Previous post-halving years have seen Ethereum gains ranging from 120% to 300% from cycle lows. If Ethereum establishes a base around $2,500 in 2025, a conservative 120% increase would push prices to around $5,500 in 2026. A more moderate scenario anticipates Ethereum trading between $3,800 and $4,600 during that year, assuming stable macroeconomic conditions and no severe liquidity shocks.
In 2027, market cycles typically cool after strong expansion years. Historical data suggests that Ethereum may retrace 30% to 45% from local highs. Should the price reach $4,800 in 2026, a 40% retracement could bring Ethereum down to approximately $2,900 in 2027. Despite possible pullbacks, long-term trend support is expected to continue rising, with the 200-week moving average projected to approach $2,400 to $2,600 by 2027. This rising floor would limit downside risk, with average trading prices likely to remain between $3,000 and $3,600, keeping the $3,900 mark within reach during stronger quarterly performances.
By 2028, Ethereum will experience another Bitcoin halving cycle, often spurring increased speculative interest in the crypto markets. Historically, Ethereum has typically surged 80% to 150% during pre-halving accumulation phases. If Ethereum averages $3,200 in 2027, an 80% increase would target approximately $5,760 in 2028, while a more conservative 50% growth scenario would place the price near $4,800. In either case, $3,900 would likely act as a support zone rather than a resistance level.
As we approach 2029, late-cycle years tend to bring volatility and sharp peaks. Historical trends indicate that Ethereum has previously gained over 200% during late-cycle surges. A similar increase from a $4,000 base could elevate prices toward $12,000. More conservative models predict lower growth of around 100%, still suggesting potential price levels of $7,500 to $8,000. During these expansions, Ethereum rarely dips below its prior cycle highs for extended periods, indicating sustained trading above $3,900 throughout most of 2029.
Looking further ahead to 2030, Ethereum’s valuation will likely hinge on real usage rather than pure speculation. Factors such as fee revenue, layer-2 adoption, and tokenized assets will play significant roles in shaping its value. With a projected circulating supply nearing 120 million ETH, such valuations could imply prices ranging between $12,500 and $16,600. Even under slower growth scenarios, Ethereum is expected to remain above $6,000, indicating that $3,900 is well below the estimated fair value.
In summary, Ethereum’s potential to reach $3,900 again does not rely on extreme optimism. Historical price behavior, reduced supply growth, and strong staking levels support this projection. Timeframes from 2026 to 2030 reveal multiple scenarios in which Ethereum could trade well above $3,900 for extended periods, with technical, on-chain, and macro models consistently indicating that this price point is attainable.
