A recent national survey conducted by Emerson College Polling indicates a notable preference among voters for moderate candidates in the upcoming 2028 presidential election. The survey highlights a growing sentiment that moderates might hold the key to electoral success, especially among independents who often sway results in close races.
The survey presented hypothetical matchups without naming specific candidates, framing them as “progressive,” “MAGA,” and “moderate.” In these scenarios, a moderate Democrat outperformed a “Make America Great Again” Republican by 47% to 38%. Conversely, a moderate Republican surpassed a progressive Democrat, scoring 48% to 36%. Notably, the support for moderates was even more pronounced among independent voters, suggesting a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Despite the promising numbers for moderates, political analysts caution against assuming that these preferences will translate into votes. According to Jake Neiheisel, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo, voters often express a desire for moderation but may gravitate towards extremes when casting their ballots. He remarked, “We have had a penchant in recent years for what’s sometimes described as leapfrog representation, where you get one extreme, you don’t really like it, you go to the other extreme.”
Meanwhile, Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, believes that moderates have an electoral advantage. “There’s several more points to be won at the ballot box if you’re a more centrist or moderate candidate,” he explained. He emphasized the importance of appealing to swing voters, who can decide close elections.
Political dynamics complicate the picture. Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, pointed out that while voters may favor moderate candidates, the reality is that primary elections often favor those with more extreme views. “Moderates tend not to generate as much enthusiasm in primary season, when politically active and engaged voters tend to be further to the right or left,” he stated. Loge noted that this can lead to a situation where moderate votes are split, allowing an extreme candidate to emerge victorious.
The survey raises questions about what the 2028 landscape might look like. Neiheisel anticipates a matchup between a progressive Democrat and a MAGA Republican. He noted that political parties often double down on their previous strategies, suggesting that Democrats may lean towards progressive candidates while Republicans maintain their existing approach.
Contrarily, McKee predicts a potential clash between a moderate Democrat and a MAGA Republican. He highlighted the Democratic Party’s strength in moderates, particularly among governors. He cited several potential candidates, including Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Wes Moore of Maryland, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, all of whom could effectively challenge a MAGA Republican.
While California Governor Gavin Newsom is viewed as a leading progressive candidate, McKee pointed out the challenges he may face due to his ties to the “California liberal” image and the early primary calendar, which favors Southern states.
The 2028 election landscape remains uncertain, but analysts agree on one thing: the political dynamics will be crucial in shaping the candidates who emerge from the primaries. McKee suggested that Secretary of State Marco Rubio might be a leading moderate Republican candidate, capable of appealing to a broader electorate against a progressive opponent like Newsom.
As the political climate evolves, the upcoming election will likely reflect the complexities of voter preferences and party dynamics. The survey results offer a glimpse into the potential for moderation in a political environment often dominated by extremes.
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