Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Thursday that Russia has deployed its latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to Belarus. This development coincides with critical peace talks aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. According to Lukashenko, the Oreshnik missile system arrived in Belarus on Wednesday and is now entering combat duty. He did not disclose the number of missiles deployed or further specifics about the arrangement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Oreshnik system would be operational this month during a meeting with military officials. He emphasized that Moscow would seek to extend its territorial gains in Ukraine if its demands in peace negotiations are not met. The ongoing diplomatic efforts led by the United States to end the conflict, which has persisted since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, face significant challenges due to conflicting positions from both Moscow and Kyiv.
Russia has previously stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which has also served as a launch point for its military operations in Ukraine. Lukashenko stated in the past that Belarus hosts several dozen Russian tactical nuclear weapons. The Oreshnik missile, whose name translates to “hazelnut tree,” was first tested in November 2024 against a Ukrainian factory. Putin has boasted that the missile is nearly impossible to intercept, claiming that multiple warheads can strike at speeds up to Mach 10.
The implications of this deployment are significant. Russian state media reported that the Oreshnik could reach an air base in Poland within 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in just 17 minutes. It is noteworthy that the missile’s payload type—whether nuclear or conventional—cannot be determined until it strikes its target. Intermediate-range missiles, defined as those with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (approximately 310 to 3,400 miles), were previously restricted under a treaty abandoned by the United States and Russia in 2019.
Putin and Lukashenko previously indicated that the Oreshnik would be deployed to Belarus by the end of this year. During a security pact signing in December 2024, Putin noted that while Russia would control the missiles, Belarus would have the authority to select targets. He warned that if the missiles are used against targets closer to Belarus, they could carry a significantly heavier payload.
In 2024, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine, stating that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power would be viewed as a joint attack. This warning appears intended to deter the West from allowing Ukraine to utilize longer-range weapons against Russian territory and suggests a lowered threshold for the potential use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. The updated doctrine also aligns Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella.
Lukashenko has maintained a firm grip on Belarus, a nation of 9.5 million people, for over three decades. His administration has faced international sanctions due to its human rights violations and its collaboration with Russia during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Despite strong ties with Moscow, Lukashenko has also sought to improve relations with the United States.
In a recent gesture towards reconciliation, Lukashenko released 123 political prisoners on Saturday, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. This release was part of an agreement that resulted in the lifting of some U.S. sanctions against Belarusian potash industries, a vital source of export revenue.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya expressed concerns regarding the Oreshnik’s deployment, stating that it deepens Belarus’s military and political dependence on Russia. She remarked, “The deployment of Oreshnik turns Belarus into a target and militarizes the country, and we stand categorically against it. Putin is using Lukashenko as a tool for the Kremlin’s games.”
The deployment of the Oreshnik missile system highlights the increasing military cooperation between Russia and Belarus amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and raises alarm within the international community regarding regional security dynamics.
